Climate change impacts in the Russian Federation

Climate change impacts in the Russian Federation - what the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found:

• Observed climate trends of 2-3°C temperature rise in past 90 years, more pronounced in spring and winter [10.2.2].
• Observed changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies:
• Heat waves broke past 22-year record in May 2005 [10.2.3].
• Increase in heavy rains in western Russia and decrease in Siberia; Increase in number of days with more than 10mm rain; 50 to 70% increase in surface runoff in Siberia [10.2.3].
• Annual increase of 5% of river flow, winter increase of 25-90% increase in winter base flow due to increased melt and thawing permafrost. 1935-1999 Arctic Drainage Basin: Ob, Lena, Yenisey [1.3.2.1].
• Russian Arctic rivers: Increasing catastrophic floods of frequency (0.5 to 1%) in the last years due to earlier breakup of river-ice and heavy rain [1.3.2.1]
  
• A recent major ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea has been attributed to regional climate warming and trends in the Arctic Oscillation [1.3.4.2]
  
• Increasing winter temperature considerably changes the ice regime of water bodies in the northern regions. Comparing the horizon of 2010-2015 with the control period 1950-1979 show that ice cover duration on the rivers in Siberia would be shorter by 15-27 days and maximum ice cover would be thinner by 20-40% [3.4].
• In several northern hemisphere mountain systems, treelines have markedly shifted to higher elevations during the 20th century such as in the Urals [1.3.5.2].
• Arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems (particularly ombrotrophic bog communities; a form of wetland) above permafrost were considered likely to be most vulnerable to climatic changes, since impacts may turn arctic regions from a net carbon sink to a net source [4.4.6].
• Current estimates of northern wetland methane emissions increase by 10–63% based on Northern Siberian estimates alone. This methane source comprises a positive feedback to climate change, as thaw lakes and mires are expanding in response to warming [4.4.6].
• Dramatic increase of fires in Siberian peatlands (of which 20 million ha were burnt in 2003) linked to increased human activities combined with changing climate conditions, particularly increase in temperature [10.2.4.4].
• Polar bears will face a high risk of extinction with warming of 2.8°C above pre-industrial [Box 4.3].