Gradual effort to come out of overshoot by 2100
Accumulated ecological debt eliminated by 2080, a modest 10% biocapacity buffer by the end of the century
Slow-shift
This scenario assumes that on the demand side:
Humanity's ecological footprint can be reduced by 15% from 2.2 global hectares in 2003 to 1.5 global hectares in 2100, if the following can be achieved
This would result in an elimination of overshoot by 2080 and a modest 10% biocapacity buffer which could be used by the wild species.
CO2 reduction is the key
The largest component of the 2003 Ecological Footprint was the CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Many geologists expect that oil production will peak in the next 2 to 3 decades. Without stringent control this could result in sharp rise in emissions by the end of the century.
Very strong measures are required to achieve the 50% reduction required in this slow-shift scenario. There are no easy solutions. The main forms of renewable energy in use today - hydropower, wind power, and biomass - all reduce CO2 emissions when substituted for fossil fuels but increase demand on land. Moreover, even a 50-fold increase in wind-power and 700-fold increase in use of solar power would only restrict the emissions to the current levels.
The challenge is to increase energy supply while reducing CO2 emissions without shifting the burden to other parts of the biosphere.
Humanity's ecological footprint can be reduced by 15% from 2.2 global hectares in 2003 to 1.5 global hectares in 2100, if the following can be achieved
- Global CO2 emissions down by 50%
- Fishing harvests down by 50%
- Demand on cropland and grazing land to increase at half the rate of population growth
- Forest products consumption to rise by 50%
This would result in an elimination of overshoot by 2080 and a modest 10% biocapacity buffer which could be used by the wild species.
CO2 reduction is the key
The largest component of the 2003 Ecological Footprint was the CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Many geologists expect that oil production will peak in the next 2 to 3 decades. Without stringent control this could result in sharp rise in emissions by the end of the century.
Very strong measures are required to achieve the 50% reduction required in this slow-shift scenario. There are no easy solutions. The main forms of renewable energy in use today - hydropower, wind power, and biomass - all reduce CO2 emissions when substituted for fossil fuels but increase demand on land. Moreover, even a 50-fold increase in wind-power and 700-fold increase in use of solar power would only restrict the emissions to the current levels.
The challenge is to increase energy supply while reducing CO2 emissions without shifting the burden to other parts of the biosphere.
