Interview with Dr. Carlos Nobre, recipient of the WWF-Brazil Environment Personality Award

Dr. Carlos Nobre has received the 2009 Brazil Environment Personality Award for the tremendous contributions he has made towards an understanding of global warming and the impacts of climate change on the Amazon.

Dr. Carlos Nobre is Head Researcher and General Coordinator of the Scientific Centre of the Brazilian National Space Research Institute –INPE’s Terrestrial System. The award ceremony took place on the night of October 13, during the visit of the Darwin Expedition to Rio de Janeiro, with a ceremony on board the clipper ‘Stad Amsterdam,’ moored at the Mauá Pier. The exhibition is retracing the journey made by naturalist Charles Darwin to the Southern Hemisphere during the 19th century.

In addition to his work as an INPE researcher, Dr. Nobre is the executive secretary of the Brazilian Climate Change Research Network (Rede CLIMA), executive coordinator of the Global Climate Change Research Programme run by the FAPESP and President of the Scientific Committee of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).

Dr. Nobre was also one of the authors of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2007 along with former US Vice-president Al Gore. In 2007 he received the Conrado Wessel Foundation Environment Award. In 1991 Dr. Nobre formulated his pioneering hypothesis on possible savannization of the Amazon which today is an important reference theory worldwide.

The WWF-Brazil Environment Personality Award is given bi-annually for outstanding work in the conservation of nature and in fostering the country’s sustainable development. The first edition of the Award went to Marina Silva, at that time, Brazil’s Minister for the Environment.

Dr. Carlos Nobre was interviewed by WWF-Brazil journalists Denise Oliveira and Mariana Ramos.

WWF-Brazil – How do you feel about having received the WWF-Brasil -Brasil Environment Personality Award?

Carlos Nobre – First of all it was a great surprise. I have always seen myself as a scientist. But I am very happy and flattered that my work as a scientist should have been considered as a form of communicating the seriousness and the grave nature [of the situation] that the world is facing and living in today because of the great environmental crisis we are going through. So I am especially pleased that the efforts I have made to advance scientific knowledge in this area, particularly in Brazil, have been extrapolated to beyond the exclusive realm of scientific discussion and become useful in making society aware of the risks we are running because of the way we are treating the global environment.

It is indeed an honour for me to have been remembered in this way, and all the more so to be the second person to receive the award after ex-minister Marina Silva; that fact alone is an award in itself because I have tremendous admiration for former minister Marina Silva. I think she is a very rare kind of person in the world and I am very pleased to be the second in line to receive this WWF-Brasil Award.

WWF-Brazil – The award is being granted on the occasion of the Darwin Expedition’s visit to Brazil. In that perspective, what is your view of the threat represented by global warming to the species inhabiting the Southern Hemisphere?

Carlos Nobre – It is a great pleasure to be able to participate in the celebration of that voyage. It all adds up. Darwin shed a tremendous light on things; many classify his Theory of Evolution as one of the three most important scientific facts ever, alongside the discovery of the atom and the Theory of Relativity. Indeed, Darwin introduced a vision of the world, of Nature, that revolutionised science and firmly put we human beings back in our rightful place: we are just another animal species in the immense network of Nature even though we are endowed with some very special faculties such as intelligence and cognition.

A great deal of the Environmental crisis we are living through today is possibly related to the fact that we have not fully understood the Theory of Evolution. We continue to nurture our anthropocentric attitudes and place the satisfaction of the material needs of Homo sapiens over and above any other consideration. We are getting farther and farther away from the biological equilibrium that has always regulated interaction among the species. If Darwin were alive today, he would be highly disappointed with global warming because we are now on the eve of a massive extinction of species, a cataclysm, largely due to our activities on the planet. There have been great cataclysms before in the history of the evolution of our planet, phenomena completely beyond human control – volcanic eruptions for example and huge meteorites that hit the Earth – but there has never been anything brought about by mankind comparable to what is happening now. It is estimated that if the warming process continues unchecked, by the end of the century 40% of all the species on Earth will be threatened with extinction. And even if global warming is kept under control and does not rise more than two degrees, even then, 10% to 15% of all species are liable to disappear.

Global warming makes no distinction between hemispheres. However there are more oceans here [in the Southern Hemisphere]. But oceanic species are not safe either. There is a rapid change of temperature taking place in the oceans and the acidity of the waters is increasing to due to the injection of carbon dioxide (CO2), the same gas that we are pouring into the atmosphere in excessive quantities. Part of it gets into the oceans increasing the acidity of the water, and that constitutes a threat to the lives of innumerable marine species.

Global warming also alters many climate patterns and affects continental species too. The plants and animals that depend on continental habitats are at risso that global warning puts the survival of thousands of species in check. Even if we are successful in bringing it under control, it is inevitable that a large number of species will be at risk. All our efforts need to be directed at maintaining and saving the greatest possible number of those species that are threatened with imminent extinction. Unfortunately it will not be possible to save all of them. We have already gone beyond the point of no return, but a concerted global effort must be made to recuperate the greatest possible number of species.

WWF-Brazil – What is your view of the efforts the countries are making to achieve a global agreement? Are you optimistic about it?

Carlos Nobre – I am moderately optimistic that world leaders will not let us down at this moment of responsibility. The commitments that are to be made at the Copenhagen Climate Conference need to be far-reaching. The meeting must not disappoint us. At the present moment, however, it is quite impossible to predict what the outcome will be. I am just telling you about my own expectations.

I think we can reasonably expect that the leaders of the major countries involved in the negotiations will participate fully in the Climate Conference. It is a conference that calls for the presence of all the world’s great leaders. Who knows, maybe the Nobel Peace Prize that has just been awarded to the President of the United States Barack Obama, will stimulate him to attend the conference in person and take on the leadership of that international meeting. The USA has a leadership role in almost all fields. It is impossible to imagine any progress in the negotiations, which call for an enormous reduction in emissions, without the strong leadership of the country that has historically had the highest level of emissions in the world, namely, the United States.

WWF-Brazil – What do you think Brazil’s role should be in the quest for a global agreement?

Carlos Nobre – Brazil now has an opportunity to take on the leadership of the developing countries, especially of the tropical countries. This country has usually aligned itself with negotiating blocs of the developing countries that encompass a variety of political realities like the G77. That historical alignment with the G77 is perfectly natural because, politically it is a very strong bloc. However when the issue is climate change Brazil should try to exercise its leadership among the tropical countries that have greenhouse gas emission patterns similar to those of Brazil itself. The patterns are very different from those of most of the G77 nations and even more so, from those of the developed countries, whose emissions are linked to the energy sector, thermoelectric generating plants, coal, petroleum and natural gas. That is also the pattern in many emerging countries like China and India who are also G77 members. Our country has a pattern of emissions linked to deforestation and agriculture as is the case with Indonesia, Malaya, Congo, Bolivia and Venezuela, in other words, tropical countries. Among these tropical countries, Brazil is the one with the greatest possibilities for reducing emissions because of the scientific and technological progress it has achieved.

So then, it is up to Brazil to act the part of leader. That is what we expect. We have every possible qualification for doing so. If anybody doubts it, then the last few years serve to show that it is perfectly possible to reduce the rate of deforestation of tropical forests. We have managed to do that for the last four years. Even in Indonesia there has been a reduction in the last two years. Now is a very propitious moment for launching programmes designed to intensify the reduction of deforestation, to foster more efficient forms of agriculture to produce more food and biofuel that take up less land and use up fewer natural resources. That is a tremendous challenge and it is what we are all expecting Brazil will take to Copenhagen. I am really hoping that President Lula will decide to attend [the conference] in person.

This is also a good moment for Brazil in terms of international visibility in various fields and the time has come for the nation to formally accept its role as a leader. But that also implies taking on responsibilities. The country needs to show very clearly that it is striving to reduce the level of its emissions in compliance with what was agreed to in the terms of the Bali Climate Conference in 2007. The “Bali Road Map” text states that the developing countries will take on the responsibility of reducing their emissions. After that, it is hoped that in the future, the scientific, technological, financial and economic conditions of the developing countries will enable them to contribute to global efforts to achieve long-term emission reduction targets set for 2050.

To ensure that the planet does not heat up and that temperatures eventually stabilize at a level of less than two degrees higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution, we need to cut emissions by 80% in regard to what they were in 1990. That actually means a reduction of 90% in the level of emissions being practiced today. It means a complete de-carbonization of the world’s production and consumption systems. It is therefore, a long-term proposal and all countries will have to join in the effort.

WWF-Brazil – What do you think about the activities of the nongovernmental organizations like WWF-Brasil directed at the national delegations to the negotiations? Do you think they are of any importance?

Carlos Nobre – The NGOs have been playing a very important role. They are very effective in carrying the debate into the heart of society and afterwards they make the voice of society heard at the negotiations. They are often very effective channels for communicating society’s wishes. As an example, public opinion polls in Brazil show that 90% of the Brazilian people, including the inhabitants of the Amazon itself, do not want a development model that depends on the destruction of the forest. The NGOs have been very effective in representing that kind of opinion in the debate and in intensifying the discussion within society itself. Furthermore, insofar as they closely accompany the negotiations, they end up exerting a legitimate political pressure on the decision makers, on the political class involved in making the great international decisions. In my opinion they have been a really important agent [in those processes].

The NGOs have increasingly been aligning their political discourse with scientific reality. To me as a scientist, that is particularly gratifying because years ago the NGOs did not adhere very strongly to science and that led to much wear and tear and a certain degree of disdain in regard to the political positions adopted by NGOs which at the time were widely divorced from the respective scientific knowledge. Over the last fifteen years there has been enormous progress. Nowadays, the political positions adopted by the NGOs are closely aligned with or much more dependent on existing scientific knowledge

WWF-Brazil – What does humanity stand to lose if the global climate agreement is not signed or if it is not vigorous enough to keep the rise in global temperature below the two degree mark?

Carlos Nobre – First of all we (as a species) are going to be increasingly alone. The biological richness that our planet managed to achieve – a construction that took tens of millions of years counted from the time of the last great wave of extinction, 75 million years ago – will be destroyed as a result of our actions. Obviously we are not going to be left totally alone. However from an ethical point of view that situation is not something we should feel proud of.

Up until now science has been unable to specify definitively, how many species need to exist for the human race to survive. But there will be inevitable reductions in the effectiveness of those ecosystems that provide services that are essential to the maintenance of the quality of human life, and even for the production of food. So what can be said is that we are going to become more impoverished and it will be increasingly difficult to maintain our quality of life.

The millions inhabitants of our planet that now live in abject poverty will find it harder than ever to come out of it because climate change affects them more severely. They are highly vulnerable to the impacts stemming from climate change, much more so than most other population groups that can find solutions more readily. If we fail to control the rising temperature we are going to leave our descendants a heritage of conditions that make it more difficult than ever for those that have not achieved our present level of development to do so. We should not even think about leaving such a world for future generations. We really must make the effort. It is an effort that must be made by the present generation, the next one and the one after that, but above all by the present generation and the next one.

If we fail to alter the global warming curve in the next 20 or 30 years, we run the risk of facing serious disturbances many of which will be irreversible and it may take the planet thousands and thousands of years to restore equilibrium. We are at a critical moment and we have to make every possible effort to avoid the overheating of our planet.

WWF-Brazil – Do you think that in the present context, where the world is more highly connected by means of the Internet and there are more resources being mobilised than at the time the Kyoto protocol was drawn up, society itself is more aware and more highly mobilised in regard to global warming?

Carlos Nobre – The level of awareness of global society is extremely high. It is not remotely comparable to what it was 10, 15, or 20 years ago. There is no longer any lack of information on the seriousness of the moment we are living through. Information is disseminated every day through the global communication media. What is lacking is the transformation of awareness into concrete actions.

And the concrete actions are still not as good as they should be. They take place at a time when society at large begins to feel that it is the master of its own destiny. People merely wait for the politicians to make decisions or for the world’s statesmen and leaders to delineate their visions. Today society needs to grasp its destiny with both hands and take an active role in determining it. It is not enough just to call on the national and international political classes to find the solutions.

It also means understanding that we need to achieve a stage of human development known as post consumerism. That depends on individual actions, on changes in behaviour patterns, even on profound changes in philosophies. What we need is to infuse all levels of society and all human activities with changes in attitude and changes in behaviour.

The extent to which awareness translates into action is still very small. Admittedly, it is not an easy task because what it involves is not simply lowering the quality of life but rather viewing quality of life through different lenses, in a different perspective. Profound cultural transformations do not take place from one day to the next and that means that education is a highly important activity for facilitating them.

WWF-Brazil – You are constantly being called on to give an opinion, lecture, give interviews and participate in projects like the Climate Witness project of the WWF Network. How do you feel when you are explaining science to society?

Carlos Nobre – I think that anyone that works with Environment science, especially with topics that have a direct bearing on the crisis that the planet is going through, cannot excuse himself from communicating the results obtained by that science to society. I see that as one of a scientists’ duties in today’s world. In the past there was an erroneous and even grotesque idea that a scientist was someone that practically isolated himself in a laboratory, only lived for the possibility of making a scientific discovery and did not worry about anything else, not even whether the knowledge he produced would eventually be utilized by society at large.

I do not think that was ever the case but it certainly was the stereotype of a scientist that used to exist. Nowadays a scientist feels practically obliged to communicate his findings to society as well, especially in the case of scientists involved with scientific issues concerning the environment.

Science itself is supposedly neutral but it supplies information that is essential for the decision making process. It is mainly science that is able to provide information on risks and the path that should be followed, whether we are heading towards a sustainable planet or whether we are actually on an unsustainable trajectory. Many, many scientists today are very much aware how important it is for them to contribute to the work of providing information.

It must also be admitted that modern science has made so much progress in the tools it has available that the scientist is now a little less short of time. Technological progress within science itself has actually given scientists a little more time to dedicate to communicating their results to society.

WWF-Brazil – From the angle of science and scientific and technological development, what are the next great steps forward going to be? What should scientists be concentrating on most to enable us to achieve greater environmental stability?

Carlos Nobre – There are many areas. In regard to the question of the environment, the great crisis we are in, I think there are three priority topics for the coming years: sustainable technology, renewable energy, and re-cycling.

We also need to make rapid progress in informing society of the imminent risk of collapses, of a huge rupture in the fabric of natural systems in all spheres. That is highly important because the adaptation actions will depend on having that information. Science needs to make more progress in regard to adaptations to the coming impacts: how to reduce risks through adaptation measures, the adaptation of human beings, of the ecosystems and the species.

In the field of technology, we need to rapidly incorporate sustainable ways of maintaining our quality of life in terms of energy and food supplies. Both of them need to be produced with far less impact on the environment. That means that science and technology need to create the instruments that will enable people to choose which path to follow and hope that they choose the sustainable option, and that needs to be done as fast as possible. It is up to science and technology to provide such solutions.

Science also needs to advance in its understanding of behaviour: how can human beings be transformed in their behavioural aspect; how can it be ensured that they choose the most sustainable trajectory: living well, using less.

WWF-Brazil – What would be your environmental message to the Brazilian people?

Carlos Nobre – Brazil is in a position to be one of the cleanest countries in the world with the lowest impact on the environment not only in regard to impacts from climate change but from other alterations to the global environment. To that end, Brazilians need to firmly decide to opt for the pathway of sustainability. We must not base our development, our search for a better quality of life, on a model that is absolutely out of date, the fossil fuel model, a model that we need to abandon.

Brazilians need to envisage their future within the concept of our becoming the first tropical country to achieve development, fully recognising our tropical characteristics, our abundance of natural resources, and our use of sustainable natural resources. If we wish to become an important power in the world one day, then let us become an important environmental power and that means becoming one of the cleanest countries in the world.

That is my heartfelt wish as a Brazilian and would really like all my countrymen to share it with me. Let us turn away, not go down the long trail of development that countries have been treading for the last 200 years. Let us find a new way to arrive at development, one that our tropical nature allows us to follow, perhaps more easily than other countries. Let us set the rest of the world an example.