Climate Change in the Arctic

Suffering the greatest impacts

The Arctic is warming

Air temperatures in the region have on average increased by about 5°C over the last 100 years. Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by 14% since the 1970s. New areas of extensive permafrost thawing have developed.

These changes are being driven by global warming gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere.

The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and major physical, ecological, and economic impacts are expected to appear rapidly. Arctic indigenous communities are already noticing some of these changes: warmer winters, earlier break-up of ice in the spring, and thinner ice year round. This traditional knowledge supports scientific evidence.

Computer models predict disappearance of summer sea ice

The results of computer modeling of future climate vary in detail, but all show a clear trend towards an overall warming in the Arctic, and a resulting melting of the sea ice. The models suggest that by 2080, or possibly earlier, arctic sea ice will completely disappear during the summer months.

Even an increase of 2°C could be too much.

A slight shift in temperature, bringing averages above the freezing point, will completely alter the character of the region. Where once ice covered the seas and permafrost stabilised the ground, open water and large tracts of marshy tundra will dominate. The consequences for arctic species will be severe.

This situation could extend to other parts of the Arctic should climate change go unchecked.

Lilljehook Glacier, Svalbard in July 1906 and July 2005. © Palais Princier de Monaco

Shrinking glacier
Some of this shrinkage is due to natural climatic cycles; however, scientists now believe that human influence will lead to further temperature rises. If the upward trend in temperature continues in the future as it has done in the past 50 years, small glaciers on the west coast of Svalbard will be completely gone in the next 100 years.